
The UAE Central Bank ruled out any move to drop dirhams dollar peg despite fears that a further fall in the value of greenback against major currencies would fan spiralling inflation to new highs.
UAE Central Bank Governor Sultan Nasser Al Suweidi said there was no need to allow the dirham to rise against the dollar which is heading towards a rise. Suweidi was quoted by Al Ittihad as saying that since the dollar is expected to recover after a record fall against euro and other currencies, it is not logical now to drop the peg.
Currency analysts, however, predicted that the dollar would continue to fall beyond $1.51 to the euro as a further cut in interest rate looked certain with the US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke indicating that such a move was inevitable to stave off a recession in the US.
Suweidi's unwavering commitment to peg the dollar at a time when the regional and international economists warn of serious inflationary pressures in the GCC countries, where most currencies, except the Kuwaiti dinar, related to the fall on the greenback.
Nobel Laureate Professor Joseph E Stiglitz said with a weakening dollar, the GCC are tying themselves to a policy of devaluation against the euro. "This does not make sense to peg to a currency that is unstable," he said. "The key is to have a managed exchange rate against the basket of currencies," said Professor Stiglitz.
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Monday about the Gulf Arab record inflation, the fall "significantly" were oil producers drop their dollar pegs, unlike Saudi policy.
"In the short term, free floating will not eliminate inflationary pressures, although it could do so much," said Greenspan investment conference in Jeddah. Inflation hit a 27 - year peak of seven per cent in Saudi Arabia in January and it is estimated that 19 - year peak of more than 10 per cent in the UAE in 2007.
Greenspan said that the Gulf state of the pegs limit the ability to fight inflation, forcing them to track U.S. monetary policy, at a time when the Fed is to reduce rates to push the recession and the Gulf economy sharply on nearly fivefold jump in prices Oil since 2002.